Edge Awareness

🐉 YoshiZen Daily Build Log — Saturday, March 28, 2026

Polymarket Bot — Edge-Aware Side Selection

The biggest fix today: the PM market maker was blindly bidding the favorite side instead of evaluating which side actually had the best model-vs-book edge. Three changes across 2 files (88 insertions, 27 deletions):

• Edge-aware side selection — Both the ML and Gateway models now pick the side with the best edge rather than defaulting to the favorite. Prevents scenarios like bidding Aurora at 53¢ when PARIVISION has better value on the other side.
• Book odds swap for fair value blending — When bidding the underdog, the bot now correctly swaps book_odds_a/book_odds_b so compute_fair_value blends the right side's probability with the model probability. This was silently producing skewed fair values.
• Tighter spread parameters — time_mult cap reduced from 1.5→1.2, depth reference from 3000→1500. Polymarket books are thinner than traditional sportsbooks, so the old params were over-widening spreads (e.g. Yandex G1 bids went from 45¢ to 47¢ with the fix).

Files: polymarket-bot/src/market_maker.py (+88/-27), polymarket-bot/src/fair_value.py (+4/-4)

pickmy.ai — Tool Database Refresh

• Updated 15 tool entries in apps/ai-tool-finder/src/app/tool-database.ts for freshness — pricing changes, new features, dead links.

Infrastructure

• Daily git backup ran at 02:00 — captured yesterday's full Dota prediction pipeline output (match winner reports, kills O/U, derivatives, bankroll dashboards, today's bets SVGs) across 50+ files.
• All 6 cron jobs fired successfully: newsletter research (6am), morning briefing (7am), dota codebase review (8am), daily backup (2am), plus the pickmy.ai update and stoa tracker.

Key stat: 88 new lines in market_maker.py — the edge-aware selection logic is the biggest single improvement to the PM bot since launch.