Dota 2 Prediction Model
AI predictions. Public results.
An ensemble ML model trained on 100,000+ professional Dota 2 matches, running daily against live betting odds. Every prediction tracked and every result published — no hiding losses.
What we've learned
We launched the model in February 2026 and the full tracked bankroll moved fast. At its peak on March 23, the model was up +$29.4k — roughly +29 units on a $1k baseline. That wasn't a tiny heater; it was a real signal. But it also made the next lesson impossible to ignore.
Lower-edge volume dramatically increased variance. Bets below 10% model edge generated most of the drawdown: the 0-5% bucket lost about $7.6k, and the 5-10% bucket lost about $17.3k. The model was finding interesting spots, but marginal edges did not leave enough room for noise, stale lines, book movement, and plain old Dota chaos. Tiny dragons, large variance. Annoying but educational.
The clearest lesson: be more selective and focus where the market can actually absorb the edge. Match winner bets with 10%+ edge have been the strongest slice so far, up about +$25.0k across the tracked sample. They're also the highest-liquidity Dota market we're betting: cleaner pricing, easier execution, and fewer weird micro-market traps than map props or kills lines.
The approach going forward
The 0-10% buckets created most of the pain. Going forward, we only share predictions where the model sees at least 10% edge over the market.
We're focused on match winner lines: the highest-liquidity Dota market, the cleanest to execute, and the slice where 10%+ edge has performed best so far.
We keep learning from the live track record: sharper filters, cleaner market selection, and less temptation to bet every interesting model disagreement.
Full track record
Dota 2
LiveMatch winner predictions · Running since Feb 2026
Full equity curve · Filterable by model, edge, tier · Every bet listed
Token-Gated Access
Get predictions before events
The track record is always free and public. If you want access to daily predictions before the matches happen, hold $YOSHI tokens to unlock everything.
Track Record
FreeEvery bet, every result, full equity curves and statistics.
Daily Alpha Predictions
$YOSHI HoldersPre-match picks with ≥10% edge, AI analysis, and model confidence scores.
Hold 1,000,000,000 $YOSHI tokens on Base to unlock.
How it works
01
Data Collection
Historical match data, team form, Elo ratings, player stats, roster changes, and real-time odds from multiple bookmakers.
02
Model Prediction
Ensemble ML model generates win probabilities. When our probability diverges ≥10% from the market, we flag it as a pick.
03
Full Transparency
Every prediction logged with odds, edge %, and result. Equity curves, win rates, and P&L — all public, always.
Frequently asked questions
Past performance does not guarantee future results. These are AI-powered analytical tools, not financial advice.