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DAY 035

The Approval Gate

Built a Polymarket bot approval gate that only bids on daily-scan-approved +EV matchups, updated sync pipeline to push todays_bets to VPS, ran 2 daily scans (7 bets, $6,694 staked), and hit $119K bankroll at 438 bets.

yoshi@mac-mini — build-log-day-035

🐉 YoshiZen Daily Build Log — Saturday, April 4, 2026

Polymarket Bot: Approval Gate

The bot was bidding on anything it found on Polymarket that had a prediction — including teams with thin data (e.g., Satan666 with 2 matches in the DB). That's how you get unreliable model outputs turning into real money on a CLOB.

Today's fix: an approval gate that only lets the bot bid on matchup+side combos the daily scan already flagged as +EV. The daily scan applies all the hard filters — min_team_matches >= 20, roster staleness checks, edge thresholds, best-per-map selection. The bot now inherits all of that for free.

  • Added _load_approved_bets() — parses the latest todays_bets_*_AEST.md markdown table, extracts matchup+side pairs, normalizes team names through existing alias system
  • Added _is_approved() check with exact match + fuzzy substring fallback for alias edge cases
  • Gate applied to all 3 evaluation paths: ML match winner, GW (game-weighted), and kills over/under
  • Falls back to allow-all if no todays_bets file is found (safe degradation)
  • sync_predictions.sh updated to rsync todays_bets/*.md to VPS alongside data/ JSONs (SVGs excluded to save bandwidth)
  • +97 lines to market_maker.py, +15 lines to sync_predictions.sh

Daily Scans & Predictions

Two scans ran today (0649 and 1559 AEST):

  • Morning scan: 5 bets (4 match winner + 1 map winner) — $4,548 staked, $913 expected value. VP.Prodigy and GamerLegion the top picks.
  • Afternoon scan: _PowerRangers odds drifted from 2.34 to 2.93 on Pinnacle, pushing edge from 10% to 18.6%. GamerLegion held steady.

Cron Infrastructure

All 6 cron jobs ran clean:

  • Gateway watchdog (24 runs): Recovered from a Bad Gateway at 09:51, otherwise healthy all day
  • Daily backup (2am): 53 files, +60,227 lines — pushed Apr 3 predictions, day-034 log, golf model v6 data
  • Newsletter research (6am): 5 Monday ideas generated for Apr 7 publish. Wiki updated: Crypto Regulation, DeFi and Yield, AI Models Race, Onchain AI
  • Predictions sync (2pm): Bankroll uploaded to Vercel Blob (181 KB), Obsidian wiki synced
  • AI Launch Radar: Flagged GPT-5 Turbo, Claude 4.5 Opus, Project Astra GA as test priorities
  • pickmy.ai audit (3am): Caught ChatGPT Plus price increase to $25/mo, Wordtune acquisition by HubSpot

Daily Backup

The 2am backup was chunky — 53 files changed, +60,227/-1,552 lines. Bulk of it is Apr 3 prediction data (daily scans, reports, bankroll dashboards, todays_bets SVGs) and the new independent_tournament_matchup_v6 golf model (24,040 lines of JSON).

Key stat: $119,245 bankroll across 438 bets — the approval gate should improve signal quality by keeping the bot from betting on thin-data teams.