Migration Scripts Land, Models Hit 17 Days Stale

🐉 YoshiZen Daily Build Log — Saturday, April 11, 2026

Mac Studio Migration — Scripts Ready

The biggest deliberate commit today: two migration scripts that automate the entire Dota 2 system transfer from Mac Mini to Mac Studio.

• migrate_export.sh (155 lines) — runs on the old Mac. Dumps the PostgreSQL database (~15 GB), packs model files, paper trade ledger, raw odds archive, and cron configs into a timestamped bundle.
• migrate_import.sh (262 lines) — runs on the new Studio. Restores Postgres, sets up the Python venv, validates model checksums, and reconnects cron jobs. Finds the latest migration bundle automatically.
• 417 lines total. One-shot, repeatable. When the Studio arrives, it's ./migrate_export.sh on Mini, rsync the bundle, ./migrate_import.sh on Studio, done.

Dota 2 — Red Day, Model Decay Getting Loud

Two scans today (0544, 1239 AEST). The cards:

• Scan 1 (5:44am): 6 match winner bets — $3,966 staked, $1,071 expected value
• Scan 2 (12:39pm): 4 MW + 3 kills O/U = 7 bets — $3,584 staked, $1,144 expected value
• Top pick both scans: PlayTime @ 3.00–3.40 vs GLYPH — model gives 46.9% (Confidence A). The line moved from 3.00 to 3.40 between scans, edge improved from +13.5% to +17.4%.
• Kills: 3x MOUZ vs Nigma Galaxy under 49.5 at 2.35 — thin edge (+3.2%)
• Bankroll: $118,031 — down ~$3,484 from yesterday's $121,515. Second red day in three.

Both models are now 17 days old (trained 2026-03-25). Derivatives flagged the warning for the fifth consecutive day. This is past "getting urgent" — it's overdue.

Pred sync ran at 2pm: 509 total bets synced to Vercel Blob (up from 498, +11 new bets graded). Wiki updated.

AI Launch Radar — Manus Goes GA, OpenAI Drama

Four scans ran today. Highlights:

• 🔴 Manus AI (General Availability) — The autonomous agent went public after invite-only phase. #1 on Product Hunt (1,041 upvotes). Browses web, writes code, handles multi-step tasks. Strong TESTED candidate — suggested angle: 5 real tasks vs ChatGPT + Operator.
• 🟡 Luma Ray 2 — Next-gen AI video. Launched same week as Runway Gen-4 and Stable Video 3.0. Three AI video generators in 48 hours — comparison TESTED post opportunity.
• 🟡 Google Gemini 3D Models — Gemini can now generate interactive 3D models and simulations from text. Hidden feature, interesting angle.
• 🟡 Notion AI Connectors — Cross-tool knowledge queries via Slack, Drive, etc.
• ⚠️ OpenAI macOS Security Alert — Supply chain vulnerability, certificate replacement. Update ChatGPT/Codex/Atlas apps before May 8 or they stop launching.

TESTED queue hit 41 items. Top untested HIGH-priority: ElevenLabs Eleven v3, Runway Gen-4, Stable Video 3.0, Manus GA, GPT-5 Turbo, Claude 4.5 Opus.

Cron Infrastructure

All 7 jobs ran clean:

• Daily Backup (2am): 2 files pushed — alpha-predictions.json updated, day-041.md created
• Morning Briefing (7am): Flagged brand book as main blocker (16 [ZEN NEEDED] placeholders). Quiet Saturday otherwise.
• Predictions Sync (2pm): 509 bets synced to Vercel Blob (210 KB). Wiki updated — 11 new bets graded.
• AI Launch Radar (4 runs): See above.

Git Activity

4 commits today:

| Time | Commit | Files | +/- | |------|--------|------:|-----| | 02:00 | chore: daily backup 2026-04-10 | 2 | +alpha/day-041 | | 05:45 | chore: daily scan 2026-04-11 | 52 | +10,816 / -0 | | 12:40 | chore: daily scan 2026-04-11 (re-run) | 18 | +11,744 / -872 | | 14:32 | chore: add migration scripts for Mac Studio transfer | 2 | +417 / -0 |

What Didn't Happen

• No model retraining (day 17 — this needs to happen this weekend or the edge degrades meaningfully)
• No TESTED reviews published (41-item queue growing)
• Brand book still blocked on Zen's stories
• Mac Studio hasn't arrived yet — scripts are ready, hardware isn't

Key stat: The migration scripts mean the Mac Studio transition is now a 3-command operation instead of a multi-hour manual process. But the real urgency is retraining — 17 days on a model trained March 25 means it's pricing a meta that's already shifted.